How the mighty have fallen- R. Dancey

The old saying about a broken clock being right twice a day finally worked for therpgsite, a forum that normally has very little of interest. But this week produced something of a gem, if by gem one is interested in how someone who once ran the hobby's flagship could go so wrong.

In this thread, Dancey repeats a contention he made some time back after leaving WotC. That RPGs as we know them are dead. MMORPGs are taking over, they have vast growth and are improving constantly. In contrast RPGs are a shrinking market.

At its core, there's nothing new here. Dancey see's sales figures and new technology and much like many before him thinks that grants him insights that never occurred to others. Like those who said TV would replace books... oh wait, books are still around and sell well enough to have made Amazon into a Internet power house. Well, maybe its cars and horses. That one did take a common item and reduce it to a niche (if a niche that people still spend a good amount of money on). But this isn't really the point I want to make.

The point is the rather strange justification he gives for believing this. He takes the WotC study on Gamer Segmentation and tries to mold it into matching his opinion. You see he thinks that two of the five player types are the ones leaving RPGs for MMORPGs because in his mind, it makes sense. He feels the goals of those two groups (Power Gamers and Character Actors) are better met by MMORPGs, and thus this is the major drive for the drop in the RPG market.

He's said this same thing before, but what makes this thread more interesting than before is a slip he makes on post #49.

The MMO was too embryonic for us to study it in 1999. I wish I had the money to repeat the survey today though...

In this one throw away comment Dancey admits something critical. He has no data that actually indicates this true. He's just making it up, much like anyone else online who is gazing into their crystal ball and telling us the future of the hobby.

Except that in so doing, he's asking us to change that hobby into something completely different. One that is based upon GNS and Story-Gaming offerings that don't support the missing player types at all.

In doing this, he runs counter to two very important findings from in the original study. From the link speaking of the Study:

In other words, even the players who enjoy a "Tactical Focus" still want to be challenged to use Strategic Thinking; likewise, even the Combat Focus player wants a Strong Character and Exciting Story.

And

We also found no additional segmentation based on what games people identified as their "favorite"; in other words, there are just as many Power Gamers as there are Storytellers who like Vampire, and just as many Thinkers as Character Acters who like D&D.

Both of these indicate that not only is Dancey acting without data, he's acting against what data he originally collected. Bad business, and worst science.

Why is he doing this? Beats me, I'm not a mind reader. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's more ego driven than anything. D&D is shrinking, MMORPGs are growing- and it would be cool to be the man who explains why and offers a vision for the future. If he's right, he's golden. If he fails, well he's no more forgotten than he is now is he?


But if he's making wild unfounded guesses, I can play the game too. I'd put money that a repeat of the study done today would produce the same results (if fewer gamers).

Why then the drop in the RPG market and the growth in MMORPGs? Here's my wild guess

1. The OGL weakened the primary RPG brand making it one of many.
2. The OGL to a significant extent prevented the original owner from driving new versions or its future (as old versions remain supported)
3. The 4th edition of D&D was poor design
4. Most RPGs are poor design
5. MMORPGs are quick and easy, and quick and easy wins out over a hobby hit by the above four factors
6. There would be a natural migration to MMORPGs from those who previously played RPGs due to common factors. These include the fact that RPG gamers have always consider the overhead high, many have lost their groups, etc. Switching to a MMORPG is just easier than dealing with those issues.
7. Just like more kids watch TV and movies than read books, more kids will be playing MMORPGs than RPGs. This should be expected.

None of this means RPGs will disappear completely, although it's possible that they may reach wargame levels of 'almost disappeared'. Or they may not. We still have books after all.

IMO, it will continue as a smaller hobby even unto the days of holodecks. Sort of like books (even if they're all on a Kindle).



 
So who's right? Me or Dancey?

The only way to tell is for the hobby to go whole hog for Dancey's suggestions. If it dies, then we know he was wrong.

Oh wait, Dancey's accounted for even this. He suggests that by 2020 (only ten years) MMORPGs will reach the point where they able to meet all RPG goals. So in the time it would take for his theory to kill gaming, it will have died anyway. So he can't be proven wrong if his idea is accepted.

In the end he's not offering a new vision or path- just something that can make him a few bucks before the whole things dies. And if it doesn't die, well he'll still make a few bucks on the side if enough people buy into his predictions.

How cute.